1. Garva (Kharif) Onion Crop Arrival
- The Garva (summer) onion harvest has begun in major producing regions like Nashik, Pune (Maharashtra), and parts of Karnataka.
- Initial estimates suggest average to slightly lower yields due to unpredictable rainfall and pest pressures in late 2024.
- Market arrivals are expected to increase gradually, easing supply constraints by May-June 2025.
2. Government Scraps 20% Onion Export Duty (From 1st April 2025)
- In a major policy shift, India has removed the 20% export duty on onions, lifting restrictions on overseas shipments.
- This decision is expected to:
- Revive onion exports, particularly to Bangladesh, UAE, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka.
- Support farmers by improving realizations amid stable domestic demand.
- Exporters anticipate strong demand from Gulf and Southeast Asian markets, potentially pushing up domestic prices if global orders surge.
3. Market Outlook for 2025
- Price Trends:
- Short-term: Moderate fluctuations as fresh Garva crop enters the market.
- Medium-term: Prices may firm up if exports pick up significantly.
- Export Potential:
- India could export 1.8–2.2 million tonnes in FY 2025-26, up from ~1.5 million tonnes in 2024.
- Key competitors: Pakistan, China, and Egypt, but India retains an edge in quality and supply chain efficiency.
- Monsoon Watch:
- The 2025 Southwest Monsoon will be critical for the next Rabi onion crop (sown Oct-Dec 2025).
- A normal monsoon could ensure stable production, while deficits may trigger volatility.
Conclusion
The removal of the export duty signals a bullish phase for Indian onion trade, benefiting farmers and exporters. However, domestic price stability will depend on:
Garva crop yields (April-June 2025)
Global demand trends (especially from Asia & Middle East)
Monsoon performance (impacting next season’s sowing)